Re: [PSUBS-MAILIST] Russian Sub Sunk

["Paul Suds" <paul_suds@hotmail.com>]

Hmmmm...This is an interesting but sad event. I have a few opinions. I think 
the sumariners all died late Tuesday. That may sound pessimistic, but 
consider the available information. There has been no tapping on the hull 
since Tuesday. This is easily picked up by passive sonar from many of the 
surface ships. The Naval hierarchy says that the sailors and the commanders 
are laying down to conserve oxygen. Even if they were, they would at least 
send out a signal each day to let everyone know that they were still alive. 
Like much of the Russian information, I don't believe it. It really pains me 
that the Russian military admirals are more concerned with losing their jobs 
by asking for help than losing the lives of their seamen. At this point I 
feel more for the families than for the sailors, whom I believe are already 
(I hope not) dead. Many of these families, except those of senior officers, 
don't know who is on the sub. Due to at-sea rotations, I don't think that 
the navy knows for sure either.
As far as the Nuclear danger, there really isn't one. The reactors are shut 
down and even with decay heat, it is not likely that the fuel is damaged or 
melted. These units can operate and cool down using natural convection. 
These days, even the smallest concentrations of fission products can be 
detected. Shielding on Russian subs is not as good as US subs, but my 
understanding is that this class of sub has a lot more shielding. If the 
sailors were in the engineering spaces, and there was a breach of the 
Reactor Coolant system and significant core damage, then I would say that it 
could be potentially life threatening, but not immediately life threatening. 
It takes WBCount a week or more to decrease significantly.
I think either they had a torpedoe or torpedoes blow up or they were hit by 
freindly fire, or both. It seems that based on the damage reports, it more 
than likely involved a torpedo.
As far as the environment, I'm sure that based on the damage, there were 
only limited spaces available for the crewmen to go. Even if half survived, 
it would not take long for the oxygen to be depleted by 60 crewmen, and the 
CO2 and CO to build up. I doubt whether there are any scrubbers operating. 
The big concern is did the compartments that they are habitating become 
pressurized. If so, this would indicate a leak of some type. With 30 degree 
water entering, and who knows what other toxic substances entering from 
other compartments, survivability may have only been a day or two.
One last thing. Since hatches must be opened from the inside, even if the UK 
sub latches to the fated sub, there may not be anyone to open the hatch from 
the inside.
I believe that the only way that the crewmen will make it out of the sub is 
when they cut it open.
I guess we will know this weekend. Don't hold your breath.
Suds :(
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