Re: [PSUBS-MAILIST] drug-sub mania

[Philip Ridenauer <akula151@yahoo.com>]

Hi, Marc and everybody.

I've been following the narco-sub stories avidly now for as long as I've been a member, partly because they represent the technology available to the "little guy", and partly because I succumb to the lure of the pirate that lurks in most of us.  I've noticed a continual evolution in the sophistication of the designs, from  the low profile stealth boats of the '90s to the semi-submersibles to the fully submersible. 

It seems that if you extrapolate from the entire history of the drug war, the defenders are always at a disadvantage and trying to play catch-up as the intruders try new techniques and new technology.  Since the intruders generally experience a success rate significantly better than 50% I would say this evolution in design is based on the natural maturation coming from long-term success in operations.  Witness the inclusion of air-conditioning on this latest example.  The narco smugglers have operated successfully without it, learned that it is more than a "nice-to-have" feature and have generated sufficient revenue from past operations to now be able to include it in a new design.

Let's not kid ourselves, these guys are doing things that some of us can only dream about IMHO. Thanks for letting me stand on my soap-box.  I'll go back to the shadows, now. :)

--- On Wed, 2/16/11, Marc de Piolenc <piolenc@archivale.com> wrote:

From: Marc de Piolenc <piolenc@archivale.com>
Subject: Re: [PSUBS-MAILIST] drug-sub mania
To: personal_submersibles@psubs.org
Date: Wednesday, February 16, 2011, 4:22 AM

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On 2/16/2011 4:56 PM, irox wrote:

> To make it more stealthy than the surface boats they will require
> accurate depth keeping.  Come up a few feet too much and you
> present a taller radar target than the decks awash boats, a few feet
> to low and you are starving the diesels (and crew) of air.

Not a big problem in a sub designed with that in mind. A lot of the problems that u-boats retrofitted late in war with snorkels had was due to the fact that their hulls were optimized for surface operation.

> I am wondering how thick the hull materially is going to be (any GRP
> fans want to do some calculations and estimate the thickness of the
> hull?).  As the vessel dives there is going to be some contraction of
> the hull, reducing buoyancy, making it go deeper.

The stiffness of a GRP hull is going to make compressive strains very small, so this effect isn't likely to be a problem, particularly for a vessel designed to operate near the surface. The thickness of the hull is going to be dictated primarily by structural stability rather than strength, so it depends heavily on the stiffness of the laminate and any separate stiffening members that are provided. Best answer I can offer is "not very thick."

> On top of the comparative complexity of construction and testing when
> compared against low profile surface boats, there is the complexity of
> operation and investment in crews.  With complexity of operation come
> the requirement of higher/more training for crews.

Yes, they definitely won't be able to make do with co-opted fishermen for these boats. They will have to do their planning based on two-way trips instead of scuttling the boats on arrival, and on retaining crews for multiple trips rather than paying off fishermen and sending them home. Crew will have to be trained in emergency procedures, particularly procedures for dealing with radar detection of the snorkel head.

> Compared to the operation of decks-a-wash-boats, the submarine doesn't
> seem like it will make economic sense for drug smugglers.  They are most
> likely the relics of experimentation.  Maybe in the future...

I don't see how you can say that, considering the enormous profit margins involved. The only thing that could stop the technical escalation of the drug war is legalization, which I favor.

Assuming that the cost of the first unit in a series is much higher than a semisub of equal payload, the learning curve is very steep, so the second unit will be much cheaper than the first. Assuming, too, that the subs are able to make several runs before being caught or disposed of. Those two factors can more than compensate for the difference in initial cost. Add the security advantage of not having to get new crews for each run (which makes it relatively easy for police agencies to plant agents), and it looks pretty attractive from their point of view, despite the technical difficulties.

Marc



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