Re: [PSUBS-MAILIST] drug-sub mania

[Marc de Piolenc <piolenc@archivale.com>]

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On 2/16/2011 4:56 PM, irox wrote:

> To make it more stealthy than the surface boats they will require
> accurate depth keeping.  Come up a few feet too much and you
> present a taller radar target than the decks awash boats, a few feet
> to low and you are starving the diesels (and crew) of air.

Not a big problem in a sub designed with that in mind. A lot of the 
problems that u-boats retrofitted late in war with snorkels had was due 
to the fact that their hulls were optimized for surface operation.

> I am wondering how thick the hull materially is going to be (any GRP
> fans want to do some calculations and estimate the thickness of the
> hull?).  As the vessel dives there is going to be some contraction of
> the hull, reducing buoyancy, making it go deeper.

The stiffness of a GRP hull is going to make compressive strains very 
small, so this effect isn't likely to be a problem, particularly for a 
vessel designed to operate near the surface. The thickness of the hull 
is going to be dictated primarily by structural stability rather than 
strength, so it depends heavily on the stiffness of the laminate and any 
separate stiffening members that are provided. Best answer I can offer 
is "not very thick."

> On top of the comparative complexity of construction and testing when
> compared against low profile surface boats, there is the complexity of
> operation and investment in crews.  With complexity of operation come
> the requirement of higher/more training for crews.

Yes, they definitely won't be able to make do with co-opted fishermen 
for these boats. They will have to do their planning based on two-way 
trips instead of scuttling the boats on arrival, and on retaining crews 
for multiple trips rather than paying off fishermen and sending them 
home. Crew will have to be trained in emergency procedures, particularly 
procedures for dealing with radar detection of the snorkel head.

> Compared to the operation of decks-a-wash-boats, the submarine doesn't
> seem like it will make economic sense for drug smugglers.  They are most
> likely the relics of experimentation.  Maybe in the future...

I don't see how you can say that, considering the enormous profit 
margins involved. The only thing that could stop the technical 
escalation of the drug war is legalization, which I favor.

Assuming that the cost of the first unit in a series is much higher than 
a semisub of equal payload, the learning curve is very steep, so the 
second unit will be much cheaper than the first. Assuming, too, that the 
subs are able to make several runs before being caught or disposed of. 
Those two factors can more than compensate for the difference in initial 
cost. Add the security advantage of not having to get new crews for each 
run (which makes it relatively easy for police agencies to plant 
agents), and it looks pretty attractive from their point of view, 
despite the technical difficulties.

Marc



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