Re: [PSUBS-MAILIST] FWD: CNN Breaking News

[Michael B Holt <tlohm@juno.com>]

On Sat, 01 Feb 2003 23:41:39 -0700 Coalbunny writes:
>Peter, I let math do the talking.  I beleive we have lost a total of 16
>astronauts on the job.  3 in Apollo 11 (I think, not sure about the
>mission ID and the number of 'nauts), 6 on the Challenger in 1986, and
>this Flight, 7.

It was Apollo 1 that had three dead, and they were killed on the
launching pad during some practice runs.   I think they were
several months from launch, so that one probably should not
count.

>  Now find the total number of missions and 'nauts
>involved (add the number of 'nauts together, even the multiple mission
>'nauts) and then divide the number lost by that number.

Or do it the way they added up losses for bombers on combat operations 
in World War 2: number of lost aircraft divided by the number of aircraft

in the operation.   Doing it that way, for 107 shuttle flights there have

been two lost.  This provides a  loss rate of 0.0187 for the shuttle 
alone; adding the Apollo, Gemini and Mercury operations drives the 
number down dramatically, even if we add in the loss of Grissom's 
"Liberty Bell 7" in 1961.   

>Anyhow, in the end it means that even with the terrible losses we have
>had, the overall safety of space travel clearly out does driving your
>car down the street to the store.

The truth is that we've lost in flight only the two shuttle crews since
flights started in 1961.    That makes it very, very safe indeed.   Only
personal submarines can match that record.



Mike H.


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